Penrose – Transfusions – Estimates of Numbers Infected with HCV 1970 to 1991

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Penrose – Transfusions – Estimates of Numbers Infected with HCV 1970 to 1991

The Penrose Inquiry generated a large quantity of data. Here we extract and illustrate the estimated numbers of people infected with Hepatitis C from 1970 to 1991 from blood transfusions in Scotland.

The first chart illustrates annual numbers.

The second chart illustrates the estimated cumulative numbers of people infected.

Estimates-of-numbers-infected-1970-1991Estimates---cumulative---of-numbers-infected-1970-1991The total cumulative number of people infected according to these estimates from Penrose total 1,978, and this is based on ‘upper’ figures, i.e. the estimated maximum numbers based on statistical modelling.

Penrose himself judged these upper estimates to be too conservative and increased the estimate to 2,500.

The worst years for large numbers of infection from the contaminated blood supply are estimated to be in 1983 and 1990. Interestingly estimates for 1984 show a large drop in numbers infected, which is immediately after the worst year. This phenomanon might be explained by the increased testing for the HIV virus following the public awareness campaign undertaken at that time, which then caught those infected with HCV. Although this is a purely speculative explanation in the absence of further information at this time.

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